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Tuesday
February 20, 2007 |
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POKER HAND ODDS FOR HOLDEM
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Poker Hand Odds -
Probability of Catching an Out
Tina Bergstrom, Semi-Pro Poker Player and WPN Writer
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" Lady Poker Sharks, an online community of women poker players.
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By Tina Bergstrom
Thursday, January 4, 2007
You have the basics of the game down. You’ve been playing the lower limits and trying your hardest to perfect your game. But something is missing. Every time you need that one card to make your hand on the turn or river you have no idea what your chances truly are.
In order to compute your odds of hitting the card you need to know two important elements first. The “outs” and “unseen cards”.
Outs are the cards that will make your hand. There are 13 cards per suit, four suits in a deck, for a total of 52 cards in a deck. Example, you have QK hearts, flop is 9h 2s 3h, you need another heart to make your flush. There are 13 hearts in the deck and you have 4 leaving 9 hearts left or 9 outs with two more cards to come to make your hand.
The second element needed to compute your odds are the unseen cards. Using the same example above, 52 total cards minus 5, two in your hand and 3 on the board, leaving 47 cards to draw from. Simple division is how we will compute the odds for this hand. 9 cards divided by 47 equals 19.148 or 19.1%
Odds information for immediate use:
• Four to the flush, odds of catching your card on the turn are 19.1% and 19.6% on the river, catching it on the turn and the river 35%
• Open-ended straight, odds of catching your cards are 17.0% on the turn and 17.4% on the river, catching it on the turn and the river 31.5%
• Gutshot straight draw, odds of catching your cards are 8.5% on the turn 8.7% on the river, catching it on the turn and the river 16.5%
• Trips by turning your pocket pair into three of a kind on the turn 4.3%, on the river 4.3%, catching it on the turn and the river 8.4%
• Turning trips on the flop 11.8%
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